Friday, March 22, 2013

EURUSD, Weekend Trade

EURUSD looks to be positioned pretty neutrally after a day of covering in anticipation of Cyprus news.  My weekend trade will be to get long a few small lots around 1.2975-1.2990 before today's close.  Then when Asia opens on Sunday, watch for the following:

  • If Cyprus situation resolved -> there should be a relief gap up, maybe as high as 1.3150.  I'll sell into this gap, selling out of my position and reversing all the way to a short position.  This relief rally is bound to be beat down early in the week, due to the market's refocus on the dismal fundamental situation in EZ (recession + Italy)
  • If Cyrpus situation not resolved -> stay long and flatten out at discretion.  Depending on the news flow, there may be a small gap up, or no gap at all.  Unless Cyprus decides over the weekend to leave the EZ (seems much less possible given the reports of the last few days) this is a low risk trade.